Barely two months ago I sent out to friends and colleagues my annual blog designating the phrase, “new normal” as the “Phrase of the Year”. I noted that we were being called upon to address problems such as the growing income inequality in our nation; that our political and economic policy will need to deal with 98 million aging baby boomers; that widespread unemployment will arise as robots continue to threaten the jobs of millions over the next few decades; and, that water may run out for those living in the South and Midwest.
While I might have been on target with selection of the phrase “new normal” I was cosmically distanced from anticipating how far beyond those events of the past years we would travel by the end of the first quarter 2020. Who could have predicted that a pandemic of the proportions of that with which we are dealing could have reached our shores within months and threaten millions of lives and the virtual economy of the United States?
We have all seen the dire predictions of how devastating this virus can become. “We’re looking at something that’s catastrophic on a level that we have not seen for an infectious disease since 1918”, said Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University. “And it’s requiring sacrifices we haven’t seen since World War II. There are going to be enormous disruptions. There’s no easy way out.” The 1918 Spanish influenza killed 675,000 in the U.S. including 30,000 New Yorkers.
Much credit was given to the then City Health Commissioner, Royal S. Copeland, who mobilized every public health measure possible along with a vast network of social workers, labor unions, medical researchers, feminists, progressive activists and a massive nursing crew led by Lillian Wald, who went on to become the founder of today’s Visiting Nurse Service. How these citizens rallied to the cause was the compelling story to arise from such a disastrous threat to the city and the nation.
Today, we face an equally challenging situation. Our nation confronts not only a medical threat that could kill millions if not aggressively addressed by strict quarantines but one that will, most certainly, throw two million or more people out of work for months if not a year or more. Businesses are already threatened with bankruptcy, from the closed factories that power our worldwide manufacturing capabilities to the hundreds of thousands of small businesses in cities and towns across the country.
In speaking with dozens of business colleagues, clients and friends this past week I discerned two common themes that wove through our conversations: (1) a state of sheer uncertainty about the impact that “social distancing” and what work at home requirements will mean for our city and country; and (2) the sheer terror at how seemingly unprepared, our society and business community has been for such an occurrence.
Our national leaders have shown a vague sense of how our nation was prepared to cope with a silent killer that seemed to come out of nowhere and somehow reached the farthest and most inaccessible parts of our country and our world (“How could someone like Tom Hanks and his wife, Rita Wilson, catch the virus in Australia, for God’s sake” said one friend. “What will all this mean to our thriving real estate market once it is all finished?” asked a successful real estate broker.)
I found that I could not sugarcoat a situation that clearly, to my mind, will entail vast economic harm to small businesses lacking capital or to the largely “mom and pop” supply chain of contractors, suppliers, manufacturers and vendors that make up our $1.5 trillion a year construction industry. I suggested that this complex of events may well lead to a “new normal” realm of how we rebuild our businesses, restore faith in our government and sensitize us to the importance of protecting our fragile ecosystem.
I mentioned to several friends and colleagues that our society was not intended to be totally devastated by a virus of this proportion. In “A Guide to the End of the World” (Oxford University Press) by Bill McGuire, we are told that “as long as we are all confined to a single solar system, the long-term survival of our race is always going to be tenuous.” He points out the real threats posed to our planet by climate change, geological threats such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes or collisions from comets and asteroids that will put us in serious jeopardy over the next one hundred years. But, he concludes after a detailed recitation of these serious threats that
“Our species and those that follow may be knocked back time and time again in the short term, but provided we learn to nurture our environment rather than exploit it…perhaps we have the time to do and be almost anything. Maybe now is the right time to start.”
We are too resilient a nation to be set back irreversibly by biological disease that can be addressed if we take the necessary steps to minimize its effects. I have been led to believe that this event is meant to make us much more aware of how important it is to work together to protect our fragile environment and the institutions we have painstakingly built to be there for us during times of national uncertainty.
The past few days I reminded my children and friends that:
Our nation will stand and return stronger. Of that I am certain.
Our fundamental institutions are resilient enough to form a protective link that will enable us to muster the resources to halt the disease before long. Of that I am certain.
Our fellow citizens will rise to whatever challenges they are called upon in these difficult times. Of that I am certain.
When this is over we will still have standing the framework for continuing to rebuild our economy and continue to build a better world for our children and grandchildren. Of that I am certain.
I could not help but recall the words of President John F. Kennedy, a veteran of World War II and a hero who saved the lives of his naval compatriots aboard PT 109 who, when asked to define "courage" stated that it was "grace under pressure". I would call on each of us to heed those words in these times. Recognizing that the current time may find us under increasing pressure – and assuredly matters will get worse before they get better – we need to exhibit our strength of character to those around us and, especially those less fortunate than ourselves.
Though sheltered in our home, Marla and I have committed ourselves to making dozens of calls each day to family and friends (Facetiming them if they have the technology) to provide words of encouragement and support and love when such support may be most needed. We want our time at home to be constructively invested in doing meaningful acts that will be the best spent time while sequestered.
The uncertainty of where we are heading is frightening and will likely pervade the thoughts of many in the months ahead. But it has become more important than ever to recognize and accept that there is little we can do about these events other than to obey the dictates of the professionals and extend ourselves to those around us albeit through social media and phone calls.
In my January blog announcing the phrase of the year, I concluded with these words, which sound more prescient today than two months ago:
“So, here is my advice to each of my friends and colleagues around the country. Let’s all acknowledge that there is much over which we have no control. Worrying about what we cannot control is a decidedly frustrating and anxiety-producing activity. The nature of our lives and, in fact, the future of our nation, lies within those actions over which we can exercise some control and, in the final analysis, those issues we deem worthy of taking into our own hands.”
“Spend 2020 doing constructive thinking and performing worthwhile acts that will deal, in the most positive sense, with the “new normal” that will most decidedly be part of our lives for years to come.”
Be strong for those who are looking to you for your strength.
As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments on these words.